North Carolina
W-L: (31-19) PR = 93.7880Schedule/Results All Games
Date Opponent Conf/State (W-L, PR) Score 205 H Saint Joseph's A10 ( 3-11, 89.5) 4- 1 206 H Elon CA ( 1-14, 87.0) 15- 3 208 H James Madison SB (28-21, 92.7) 11- 3 211 H Coastal Carolina SB (27-28, 91.5) 8- 2 213 H Bryant AE ( 3-12, 86.8) 8- 1 213 H Northern Kentucky HL ( 0- 6, 88.0) 11- 0 214 H Monmouth CA ( 0- 1, 80.5) 24- 0 214 H Bryant AE ( 3-12, 86.8) 20- 0 218 H Radford BSO ( 3-13, 90.1) 6- 0 219 H North Carolina Central MEAC ( 0-13, 84.9) 13- 0 219 H North Carolina Central MEAC ( 0-13, 84.9) 10- 0 220 H Rider MAAC ( 0- 4, 85.4) 11- 1 220 H App State SB (29-22, 92.7) 5- 3 221 H Princeton IVY ( 2- 7, 90.6) 5- 2 225 A Elon CA ( 1-14, 87.0) 5- 2 227 H Boston College ACC (14-38, 90.4) 10- 9 228 H Boston College ACC (14-38, 90.4) 5- 4 301 H Boston College ACC (14-38, 90.4) 2-10 301 H Boston College ACC (14-38, 90.4) 2-10 304 H Stetson ASUN ( 1-13, 91.5) 12- 4 306 H Virginia ACC (40-18, 94.5) 3- 7 307 H Virginia ACC (40-18, 94.5) 11- 9 307 H Virginia ACC (40-18, 94.5) 14-19 313 A California ACC (17-34, 91.3) 11- 6 314 A California ACC (17-34, 91.3) 5- 6 315 A California ACC (17-34, 91.3) 13- 5 320 H Stanford ACC (38-15, 96.3) 2- 9 321 H Stanford ACC (38-15, 96.3) 2- 6 322 H Stanford ACC (38-15, 96.3) 12-15 325 H Wofford SO ( 1- 5, 89.5) 10- 7 327 A Virginia Tech ACC (48-12, 97.0) 11-11 327 A Ole Miss SEC (35-26, 95.3) 2- 2 328 A Missouri SEC (24-31, 94.5) 12- 6 328 A Tarleton State WAC (35-22, 91.5) 3- 4 331 A Liberty CUSA (27-26, 92.4) 11- 6 402 A NC State ACC (28-26, 92.8) 9- 6 403 A NC State ACC (28-26, 92.8) 11- 3 404 A NC State ACC (28-26, 92.8) 4- 2 408 H Queens University ASUN ( 0-11, 85.7) 8- 0 410 H Duke ACC (46-15, 96.6) 6-11 411 H Duke ACC (46-15, 96.6) 6- 5 412 H Duke ACC (46-15, 96.6) 2- 8 414 A East Carolina AC (31-27, 91.3) 7- 3 417 A Florida State ACC (52-10, 97.5) 4- 8 418 A Florida State ACC (52-10, 97.5) 1- 6 419 A Florida State ACC (52-10, 97.5) 2-10 422 H South Carolina SEC (32-30, 95.0) 14-16 424 A Virginia Tech ACC (48-12, 97.0) 5- 6 425 A Virginia Tech ACC (48-12, 97.0) 5-14 426 H Western Kentucky CUSA (37-11, 93.6) 4- 7 506 A Clemson ACC (33-24, 93.9) 4- 2 507 A Duke ACC (46-15, 96.6) 8-16
PREDICTION LIST
-------------------------------------
|Real = actual goal margin |
|Pred = predicted goal margin |
|+ = slightly above prediction |
|++ = above prediction |
|+++ = well above prediction |
|- = slightly below prediction |
|-- = below prediction |
|--- = well below prediction |
|Goals* = Goals over (+) under (-) |
| prediction. N/A when ten |
| goal limit is exceeded |
|n/a = Outside division |
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Date Opponent Score Real Pred +/- Goals*
205 H Saint Joseph's 4- 1 3 5 -1.99
206 H Elon 15- 3 12 8 ++ 4.47
208 H James Madison 11- 3 8 2 +++ 6.20
211 H Coastal Carolina 8- 2 6 3 + 2.95
213 H Bryant 8- 1 7 8 -0.72
213 H Northern Kentucky 11- 0 11 7 ++ 4.49
214 H Monmouth 24- 0 24 14 0.00
214 H Bryant 20- 0 20 8 +++ 6.28
218 H Radford 6- 0 6 4 1.54
219 H North Carolina Central 13- 0 13 10 + 3.33
219 H North Carolina Central 10- 0 10 10 0.33
220 H Rider 11- 1 10 9 0.84
220 H App State 5- 3 2 2 0.14
221 H Princeton 5- 2 3 4 -0.93
225 A Elon 5- 2 3 6 - -3.04
227 H Boston College 10- 9 1 4 - -3.12
228 H Boston College 5- 4 1 4 - -3.12
301 H Boston College 2-10 -8 4 --- -12.12
301 H Boston College 2-10 -8 4 --- -12.12
304 H Stetson 12- 4 8 3 ++ 4.97
306 H Virginia 3- 7 -4 0 -- -4.04
307 H Virginia 11- 9 2 0 1.96
307 H Virginia 14-19 -5 0 -- -5.04
313 A California 11- 6 5 2 + 3.29
314 A California 5- 6 -1 2 - -2.71
315 A California 13- 5 8 2 +++ 6.29
320 H Stanford 2- 9 -7 -2 -- -5.20
321 H Stanford 2- 6 -4 -2 - -2.20
322 H Stanford 12-15 -3 -2 -1.20
325 H Wofford 10- 7 3 5 -2.00
327 A Virginia Tech 11-11 0 -4 + 3.98
327 A Ole Miss 2- 2 0 -2 + 2.25
328 A Missouri 12- 6 6 -1 +++ 7.45
328 A Tarleton State 3- 4 -1 2 - -2.57
331 A Liberty 11- 6 5 1 ++ 4.32
402 A NC State 9- 6 3 0 + 2.73
403 A NC State 11- 3 8 0 +++ 7.73
404 A NC State 4- 2 2 0 1.73
408 H Queens University 8- 0 8 9 -0.79
410 H Duke 6-11 -5 -2 - -2.92
411 H Duke 6- 5 1 -2 + 3.08
412 H Duke 2- 8 -6 -2 - -3.92
414 A East Carolina 7- 3 4 2 + 2.23
417 A Florida State 4- 8 -4 -4 0.43
418 A Florida State 1- 6 -5 -4 -0.57
419 A Florida State 2-10 -8 -4 - -3.57
422 H South Carolina 14-16 -2 0 -1.56
424 A Virginia Tech 5- 6 -1 -4 + 2.98
425 A Virginia Tech 5-14 -9 -4 -- -5.02
426 H Western Kentucky 4- 7 -3 1 - -3.94
506 A Clemson 4- 2 2 -1 + 2.87
507 A Duke 8-16 -8 -4 -- -4.43
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UNDER-ACHIEVED GAMES
Date Opponent Score Real Pred +/- Goals* 301 H Boston College 2-10 -8 4 --- -12.12 301 H Boston College 2-10 -8 4 --- -12.12 306 H Virginia 3- 7 -4 0 -- -4.04 307 H Virginia 14-19 -5 0 -- -5.04 320 H Stanford 2- 9 -7 -2 -- -5.20 425 A Virginia Tech 5-14 -9 -4 -- -5.02 507 A Duke 8-16 -8 -4 -- -4.43 225 A Elon 5- 2 3 6 - -3.04 227 H Boston College 10- 9 1 4 - -3.12 228 H Boston College 5- 4 1 4 - -3.12 314 A California 5- 6 -1 2 - -2.71 321 H Stanford 2- 6 -4 -2 - -2.20 328 A Tarleton State 3- 4 -1 2 - -2.57 410 H Duke 6-11 -5 -2 - -2.92 412 H Duke 2- 8 -6 -2 - -3.92 419 A Florida State 2-10 -8 -4 - -3.57 426 H Western Kentucky 4- 7 -3 1 - -3.94 |
OVER-ACHIEVED GAMES
Date Opponent Score Real Pred +/- Goals* 208 H James Madison 11- 3 8 2 +++ 6.20 214 H Bryant 20- 0 20 8 +++ 6.28 315 A California 13- 5 8 2 +++ 6.29 328 A Missouri 12- 6 6 -1 +++ 7.45 403 A NC State 11- 3 8 0 +++ 7.73 206 H Elon 15- 3 12 8 ++ 4.47 213 H Northern Kentucky 11- 0 11 7 ++ 4.49 304 H Stetson 12- 4 8 3 ++ 4.97 331 A Liberty 11- 6 5 1 ++ 4.32 211 H Coastal Carolina 8- 2 6 3 + 2.95 219 H North Carolina Central 13- 0 13 10 + 3.33 313 A California 11- 6 5 2 + 3.29 327 A Virginia Tech 11-11 0 -4 + 3.98 327 A Ole Miss 2- 2 0 -2 + 2.25 402 A NC State 9- 6 3 0 + 2.73 411 H Duke 6- 5 1 -2 + 3.08 414 A East Carolina 7- 3 4 2 + 2.23 424 A Virginia Tech 5- 6 -1 -4 + 2.98 506 A Clemson 4- 2 2 -1 + 2.87 |
division Games OnlyAverage number of games used in Games Correction = 25.20
Date Opponent (W-L PR) SCORE SAFE SAFE Home No Games SCI
Loss Win Field Correction Points
SLP SWP Advantage Factor
3 H Saint Joseph's ( 3-11, 89.5) 4- 1 -10.36 9.01 -0.74 0.48 8.02
3 H Elon ( 1-14, 87.0) 15- 3 -12.90 6.47 -0.74 0.48 5.56
3 H James Madison (28-21, 92.7) 11- 3 -7.17 12.20 -0.74 0.48 11.11
3 H Coastal Caroli (27-28, 91.5) 8- 2 -8.42 10.95 -0.74 0.48 9.90
3 H Bryant ( 3-12, 86.8) 8- 1 -13.09 6.28 -0.74 0.48 5.37
3 H Northern Kentu ( 0- 6, 88.0) 11- 0 -11.88 7.49 -0.74 0.48 6.54
3 H Monmouth ( 0- 1, 80.5) 24- 0 -19.37 1.00 -0.74 0.48 0.25
3 H Bryant ( 3-12, 86.8) 20- 0 -13.09 6.28 -0.74 0.48 5.37
3 H Radford ( 3-13, 90.1) 6- 0 -9.83 9.54 -0.74 0.48 8.53
3 H North Carolina ( 0-13, 84.9) 13- 0 -15.04 4.33 -0.74 0.48 3.47
3 H North Carolina ( 0-13, 84.9) 10- 0 -15.04 4.33 -0.74 0.48 3.47
3 H Rider ( 0- 4, 85.4) 11- 1 -14.53 4.84 -0.74 0.48 3.98
3 H App State (29-22, 92.7) 5- 3 -7.23 12.14 -0.74 0.48 11.05
3 H Princeton ( 2- 7, 90.6) 5- 2 -9.30 10.07 -0.74 0.48 9.04
3 A Elon ( 1-14, 87.0) 5- 2 -12.90 6.47 0.74 0.48 6.99
3 H Boston College (14-38, 90.4) 10- 9 -9.49 9.88 -0.74 0.48 8.86
3 H Boston College (14-38, 90.4) 5- 4 -9.49 9.88 -0.74 0.48 8.86
3 H Boston College (14-38, 90.4) 2-10 -9.49 9.88 -0.74 0.48 -2.48
3 H Boston College (14-38, 90.4) 2-10 -9.49 9.88 -0.74 0.48 -2.48
3 H Stetson ( 1-13, 91.5) 12- 4 -8.40 10.97 -0.74 0.48 9.92
3 H Virginia (40-18, 94.5) 3- 7 -5.41 13.96 -0.74 0.48 -1.49
3 H Virginia (40-18, 94.5) 11- 9 -5.41 13.96 -0.74 0.48 12.81
3 H Virginia (40-18, 94.5) 14-19 -5.41 13.96 -0.74 0.48 -1.49
3 A California (17-34, 91.3) 11- 6 -8.57 10.80 0.74 0.48 11.19
3 A California (17-34, 91.3) 5- 6 -8.57 10.80 0.74 0.48 -1.90
3 A California (17-34, 91.3) 13- 5 -8.57 10.80 0.74 0.48 11.19
3 H Stanford (38-15, 96.3) 2- 9 -3.57 15.80 -0.74 0.48 -1.04
3 H Stanford (38-15, 96.3) 2- 6 -3.57 15.80 -0.74 0.48 -1.04
3 H Stanford (38-15, 96.3) 12-15 -3.57 15.80 -0.74 0.48 -1.04
3 H Wofford ( 1- 5, 89.5) 10- 7 -10.37 9.00 -0.74 0.48 8.01
3 A Virginia Tech (48-12, 97.0) 11-11 -2.87 16.50 0.74 0.48 0.00
3 A Ole Miss (35-26, 95.3) 2- 2 -4.60 14.77 0.74 0.48 0.00
3 A Missouri (24-31, 94.5) 12- 6 -5.40 13.97 0.74 0.48 14.26
3 A Tarleton State (35-22, 91.5) 3- 4 -8.43 10.94 0.74 0.48 -1.86
3 A Liberty (27-26, 92.4) 11- 6 -7.53 11.84 0.74 0.48 12.19
3 A NC State (28-26, 92.8) 9- 6 -7.13 12.24 0.74 0.48 12.59
3 A NC State (28-26, 92.8) 11- 3 -7.13 12.24 0.74 0.48 12.59
3 A NC State (28-26, 92.8) 4- 2 -7.13 12.24 0.74 0.48 12.59
3 H Queens Univers ( 0-11, 85.7) 8- 0 -14.16 5.21 -0.74 0.48 4.33
3 H Duke (46-15, 96.6) 6-11 -3.29 16.08 -0.74 0.48 -0.98
3 H Duke (46-15, 96.6) 6- 5 -3.29 16.08 -0.74 0.48 14.87
3 H Duke (46-15, 96.6) 2- 8 -3.29 16.08 -0.74 0.48 -0.98
3 A East Carolina (31-27, 91.3) 7- 3 -8.62 10.75 0.74 0.48 11.14
3 A Florida State (52-10, 97.5) 4- 8 -2.42 16.95 0.74 0.48 -0.41
3 A Florida State (52-10, 97.5) 1- 6 -2.42 16.95 0.74 0.48 -0.41
3 A Florida State (52-10, 97.5) 2-10 -2.42 16.95 0.74 0.48 -0.41
3 H South Carolina (32-30, 95.0) 14-16 -4.93 14.44 -0.74 0.48 -1.38
3 A Virginia Tech (48-12, 97.0) 5- 6 -2.87 16.50 0.74 0.48 -0.52
3 A Virginia Tech (48-12, 97.0) 5-14 -2.87 16.50 0.74 0.48 -0.52
3 H Western Kentuc (37-11, 93.6) 4- 7 -6.31 13.06 -0.74 0.48 -1.71
3 A Clemson (33-24, 93.9) 4- 2 -5.99 13.38 0.74 0.48 13.69
3 A Duke (46-15, 96.6) 8-16 -3.29 16.08 0.74 0.48 -0.62
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254.98
|
winning pts = 277.7234 losing points = -22.7459
SCI ={(SLP or SLW) +/- home-field advantage} * Game Correction.
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| (W-L PR) = Won-loss record and power rating |
| SCORE = game score |
| SAFE Loss (SLP) = Points deducted for losing to the opponent |
| SAFE Win (SWP) = Points awarded for defeating the opponent |
| Home-field Advantage = goals deducted/awarded for site |
| No games correction = normalzation based on a ~16 game schedule |
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